Sample deliverable / 27 September 2026
A fictional two-person software studio must decide whether to enter a second market this quarter. Its goal is profitable demand without putting current delivery commitments at risk. Compare a full launch, a small discovery test, and deferring expansion. The studio owner remains accountable for the decision.
| Input | Status / provenance | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| €2,000 cleared cash; €1,200 existing obligations; €500 reserve | Invented scenario inputs | Only €300 available for discretionary spend |
| Full launch costs €1,000 now | Invented estimate; excludes unknown ongoing costs | Fails the cash constraint even before ongoing costs |
| Three expressions of interest | Invented, unqualified interest | No evidence of willingness to pay |
| Four hours of spare review time this week | Invented capacity assumption | A bounded interview exercise is possible; delivery is not yet reserved |
| Acquisition cost, conversion and support burden | Unknown | Cannot calculate a credible launch return |
Upside: fastest route to a broader market. Downside: immediate spending exceeds available cash; demand and support costs are unknown. Reversibility: low after committed spend. Disconfirming signal: no accepted paid scope from qualified prospects. Decision: reject under the stated constraints.
Upside: gather evidence before committing cash. Downside: interviews can overstate buying intent. Reversibility: high; time is capped and no paid ads or tools are purchased. Disconfirming signal: all qualified prospects decline a specific written offer. Decision: preferred next test, conditional on actual review capacity.
Upside: protect current delivery and cash. Downside: slower learning. Reversibility: high. Disconfirming signal: a qualified customer offers an achievable, funded engagement that fits spare capacity. Decision: fallback if the discovery test would affect existing commitments.
€2,000 − €1,200 − €500 = €300 available. A €1,000 launch would leave a €700 funding gap against this floor. The discovery test has €0 incremental cash spend in this scenario; it still consumes four hours. Expressions of interest and future invoices add €0 to cleared cash.
Assign the next four available hours to five permission-based discovery conversations about one narrowly defined problem. Record the problem, current workaround, consequence and response to a specific scope and price. Do not promise delivery or spend money during the test.
Review on 4 October 2026 in this fictional scenario. Continue only if at least two qualified prospects request a written proposal and one accepts a scope that fits independently verified delivery capacity and payment timing. These are proposed test thresholds, not validated benchmarks. Stop or revise if no prospect requests a proposal, the time cap is reached, or current delivery is affected.
A verified, paid order with deliverable scope and sufficient capacity could justify a limited launch. Higher existing obligations or less review capacity would favor deferral. No revenue forecast is defensible without further evidence.
Included correction round: factual errors in the agreed evidence can be corrected once. This brief does not guarantee commercial results or provide legal, tax or regulated financial advice.